Non League Premier - Northern · Regular Season - 12
Warrington TownvsWorkington
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 6 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Non League Premier - Northern
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Warrington Town vs Workington: match review and analysis
Warrington Town vs Workington in Non League Premier - Northern on 6 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Warrington Town recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 21 and conceding 17. Workington recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses, with 26 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Warrington Town | Workington |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 8 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 21 | 26 |
| Goals conceded | 17 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 10 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Warrington Town: (2.04 weighted goals scored + 1.60 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.82 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Workington: (2.49 weighted goals scored + 1.64 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.06 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Warrington Town recent form
2.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarineFA Cup | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Ashton UnitedFA Trophy | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| South LiverpoolFA Cup | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| United of ManchesterNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Shildon AFCFA Cup | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| Shildon AFCFA Cup | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Leek TownNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| AFC EmleyNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Curzon AshtonNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Whitby TownNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 5–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Warrington Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Workington recent form
2.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleethorpes TownNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AFC EmleyNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Blyth SpartansFA Trophy | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| BuryFA Cup | Away | 1–5 | Lost | |
| Ilkeston TownNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Marske UnitedFA Cup | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Lancaster CityNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Leek TownNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| RylandsNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| United of ManchesterNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Workington’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Non League Premier - Northern — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Workington are ranked 5 in Regular Season, with 21 points from 12 games.
Warrington Town are ranked 9 in Regular Season, with 18 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 7 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Avro | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 25 |
| 3 | Redcar Athletic | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 25 |
| 4 | Guiseley AFC | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
| 5 | Workington | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Rylands | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Curzon Ashton | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 19 |
| 8 | Alfreton Town | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Warrington Town | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Bury | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 16 |
| 11 | Gainsborough Trinity | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
| 12 | Lancaster City | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 16 |
| 13 | Hyde United | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Ashton United | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Whitby Town | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 12 |
| 16 | Stockton Town | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 11 |
| 17 | Leek Town | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 10 |
| 18 | Quorn | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 10 |
| 19 | AFC Emley | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 | Bamber Bridge | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 9 |
| 21 | Ilkeston Town | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 26 | -19 | 7 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.