Premijer Liga · Regular Season - 9
VeležvsSiroki Brijeg
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Premijer Liga
- Venue
- Stadion Rodjeni
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Velež vs Siroki Brijeg: match review and analysis
Velež vs Siroki Brijeg in Premijer Liga on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Velež recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 6 and conceding 18. Siroki Brijeg recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with 14 scored and 13 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Velež | Siroki Brijeg |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 7 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 6 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 18 | 13 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Velež: (0.70 weighted goals scored + 1.47 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.09 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Siroki Brijeg: (1.36 weighted goals scored + 1.57 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.47 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Velež recent form
0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZrinjskiPremijer Liga | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| FK SarajevoPremijer Liga | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| ČelikPremijer Liga | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Sloga DobojPremijer Liga | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| BSK Banja LukaPremijer Liga | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Dunajska StredaUEFA Europa Conference League | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Dunajska StredaUEFA Europa Conference League | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Velež’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Siroki Brijeg recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| BSK Banja LukaPremijer Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| ZrinjskiPremijer Liga | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| FK SarajevoPremijer Liga | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| ČelikPremijer Liga | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Sloga DobojPremijer Liga | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| TomislavFriendlies Clubs | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Croatia ZmijavciFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Siroki Brijeg’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Premijer Liga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Siroki Brijeg are ranked 5 in Premier Liga, with 9 points from 8 games.
Velež are ranked 9 in Premier Liga, with 7 points from 8 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Siroki Brijeg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 9 |
| 7 | Čelik | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Velež | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 7 |
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.