Esiliiga A · Regular Season - 31
Tartu WelcovsElva
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Esiliiga A
- Venue
- Holm Jalgpallipark
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Tartu Welco vs Elva: match review and analysis
Tartu Welco vs Elva in Esiliiga A on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Tartu Welco recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 26 and conceding 11. Elva recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 12 scored and 10 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Tartu Welco | Elva |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 26 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 11 | 10 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Tartu Welco: (2.38 weighted goals scored + 1.31 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.85 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Elva: (1.22 weighted goals scored + 1.02 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.12 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Tartu Welco recent form
2.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ViimsiEsiliiga A | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Nõmme Kalju IIEsiliiga A | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| FCI Levadia IIEsiliiga A | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Tallinna KalevEsiliiga A | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| ViimsiEsiliiga A | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Nõmme Kalju IIEsiliiga A | Away | 4–2 | Won | |
| FCI Levadia IIEsiliiga A | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| Flora IIEsiliiga A | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| KoseCup | Away | 8–0 | Won | |
| ElvaEsiliiga A | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Tartu Welco’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Elva recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tallinna KalevCup | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| FC TallinnEsiliiga A | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Flora IIEsiliiga A | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| ViimsiEsiliiga A | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| Nõmme Kalju IIEsiliiga A | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Nõmme United IIEsiliiga A | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Flora IIEsiliiga A | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MaarduEsiliiga A | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Tallinna KalevEsiliiga A | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| JokerCup | Home | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Elva’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Esiliiga A — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Tartu Welco are ranked 1 in Esiliiga A, with 62 points from 30 games.
Elva are ranked 4 in Esiliiga A, with 48 points from 30 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 81 | 39 | 42 | 62 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 56 | 31 | 25 | 50 |
| 3 | Flora II | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 48 |
| 4 | Elva | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 47 | 44 | 3 | 48 |
| 5 | FCI Levadia II | 29 | 13 | 2 | 14 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 41 |
| 6 | Maardu | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 59 | -12 | 41 |
| 7 | Tallinna Kalev | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 37 |
| 8 | Nõmme United II | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 50 | 62 | -12 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 65 | -26 | 32 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 38 | 79 | -41 | 22 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.