Cup · Round of 32
SamavsAl Ahli
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 6 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Cup
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Sama vs Al Ahli: match review and analysis
Sama vs Al Ahli in Cup on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Sama recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the 6 games used here, scoring 4 and conceding 13. Al Ahli recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, with 12 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Sama | Al Ahli |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 4 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 3 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Sama: (0.58 weighted goals scored + 1.49 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.04 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Al Ahli: (1.25 weighted goals scored + 2.37 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.81 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 6 GAMES
Sama recent form
0.67 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. 3 of 6 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al HusseinCup | Away | 1–10 | Lost | |
| Moghayer Al SarhanCup | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Al KarmalCup | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Moghayer Al SarhanCup | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| HarthaCup | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Ittihad Al RamthaCup | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Sama’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 6 usable previous results were available.
LAST 10 GAMES
Al Ahli recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al WihdatLeague | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Al Buqa'aLeague | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Al FaisalyLeague | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Sama Al SarhanLeague | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Al HusseinLeague | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Al RamthaLeague | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Shabab Al OrdonLeague | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Al SaltLeague | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Al JazeeraLeague | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Al FaisalyLeague | Home | 0–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Al Ahli’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Cup — current table
No league table is currently available for this competition and season. Some cup rounds and friendlies do not have standings.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.