Premier League · Regular Season - 13
PenybontvsBarry Town
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
Not Started
This match has finished. Go back home for the latest fixtures →
THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Premier League
- Venue
- Bryntirion Park
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Penybont vs Barry Town: match review and analysis
Penybont vs Barry Town in Premier League on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Penybont recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 20 and conceding 9. Barry Town recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses, with 22 scored and 17 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Penybont | Barry Town |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 7 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 20 | 22 |
| Goals conceded | 9 | 17 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Penybont: (1.96 weighted goals scored + 1.84 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.90 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Barry Town: (1.99 weighted goals scored + 0.96 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.48 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Penybont recent form
2.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Airbus UKPremier League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Ammanford AFCPremier League | Away | 5–1 | Won | |
| Briton FerryPremier League | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| TrefelinPremier League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Colwyn BayPremier League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Cambrian & ClydachPremier League | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Flint Town UnitedPremier League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| LlandudnoPremier League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Haverfordwest County AFCPremier League | Away | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Penybont’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Barry Town recent form
2.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caernarfon TownPremier League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| GAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League | Home | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Colwyn BayPremier League | Away | 2–5 | Lost | |
| Ammanford AFCPremier League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| LlandudnoPremier League | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| The New SaintsPremier League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Briton FerryPremier League | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| Airbus UKPremier League | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| HolywellPremier League | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Cardiff METPremier League | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Barry Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Premier League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Penybont are ranked 3 in Premier League, with 27 points from 12 games.
Barry Town are ranked 4 in Premier League, with 25 points from 12 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 5 | 33 | 34 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 8 | 20 | 28 |
| 3 | Penybont | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 27 |
| 4 | Barry Town | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | Caernarfon Town | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 23 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 21 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 8 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 32 | -23 | 6 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 30 | -25 | 3 |
| 16 | Holywell | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 38 | -25 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.