Championship · Regular Season - 11
Newington YouthvsArds
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Championship
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
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Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Newington Youth vs Ards: match review and analysis
Newington Youth vs Ards in Championship on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Newington Youth recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 24 and conceding 18. Ards recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with 12 scored and 13 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Newington Youth | Ards |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 24 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 18 | 13 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Newington Youth: (2.56 weighted goals scored + 1.14 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.85 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Ards: (1.04 weighted goals scored + 2.00 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.52 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Newington Youth recent form
2.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InstituteChampionship | Away | 0–7 | Lost | |
| Ballinamallard UnitedChampionship | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| Glenavon FCChampionship | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| DundelaChampionship | Home | 5–5 | Draw | |
| Warrenpoint TownChampionship | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Strabane AthleticChampionship | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| RathfrilandChampionship | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| Queen's UniversityChampionship | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| LoughgallChampionship | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Annagh UnitedChampionship | Home | 4–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Newington Youth’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Ards recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballinamallard UnitedChampionship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Strabane AthleticChampionship | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Moyola ParkChampionship | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| RathfrilandChampionship | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Annagh UnitedChampionship | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Queen's UniversityChampionship | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| LoughgallChampionship | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Warrenpoint TownChampionship | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| DundelaChampionship | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Glenavon FCChampionship | Away | 3–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Ards’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Championship — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Newington Youth are ranked 3 in Championship 1, with 20 points from 10 games.
Ards are ranked 11 in Championship 1, with 12 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Annagh United | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Glenavon FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Newington Youth | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Queen's University | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 19 |
| 5 | Institute | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | H&W Welders | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Newry City AFC | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 15 |
| 8 | Warrenpoint Town | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Ballinamallard United | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Loughgall | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 13 |
| 11 | Ards | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Dundela | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Moyola Park | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 11 |
| 14 | Strabane Athletic | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
| 15 | Rathfriland | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 6 |
| 16 | Armagh City | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.