Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8
MoreirensevsGIL Vicente
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primeira Liga
- Venue
- Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente: match review and analysis
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Moreirense recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 13 and conceding 18. GIL Vicente recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, with 9 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Moreirense | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 13 | 9 |
| Goals conceded | 18 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Moreirense: (1.35 weighted goals scored + 1.21 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.28 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
GIL Vicente: (0.83 weighted goals scored + 1.83 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.33 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Moreirense recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SCPrimeira Liga | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| MaritimoPrimeira Liga | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| BenficaPrimeira Liga | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| FC PortoPrimeira Liga | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Casa PiaPrimeira Liga | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| AroucaPrimeira Liga | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| SC BragaPrimeira Liga | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Felgueiras 1932Friendlies Clubs | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| AmaranteFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| GIL VicenteFriendlies Clubs | Away | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Moreirense’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
GIL Vicente recent form
0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaritimoPrimeira Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| BenficaPrimeira Liga | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| FamalicaoPrimeira Liga | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Casa PiaPrimeira Liga | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Rio AvePrimeira Liga | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| MoreirenseFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| FC PortoFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Felgueiras 1932Friendlies Clubs | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Sporting CPPrimeira Liga | Away | 0–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from GIL Vicente’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primeira Liga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
GIL Vicente are ranked 9 in Primeira Liga, with 8 points from 6 games.
Moreirense are ranked 12 in Primeira Liga, with 8 points from 7 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 21 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | SC Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrela | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | GIL Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.