Azadegan League · Regular Season - 4
Mes Rafsanjan1–0Ario Eslamshahr
Mkeka wa Leo · Match result
Match prediction · 5 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawWon
Based on 2 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Azadegan League
- Venue
- Shohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–0
- 90-minute score
- 1–0
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr: match review and analysis
Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr in Azadegan League on 5 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–0. Review the team form and league context below.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Mes Rafsanjan recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses in the 2 games used here, scoring 1 and conceding 0. Ario Eslamshahr recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, with 10 scored and 7 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Mes Rafsanjan | Ario Eslamshahr |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 5 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 0 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 1 | 10 |
| Goals conceded | 0 | 7 |
| Over 1.5 games | 0 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Mes Rafsanjan: (0.53 weighted goals scored + 0.72 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.62 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Ario Eslamshahr: (1.06 weighted goals scored + 0.00 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.53 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 2 GAMES
Mes Rafsanjan recent form
0.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 0 of 2 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Be'sat KermanshahAzadegan League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| HavadarAzadegan League | Home | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Mes Rafsanjan’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 2 usable previous results were available.
LAST 10 GAMES
Ario Eslamshahr recent form
1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HavadarAzadegan League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Naft GachsaranAzadegan League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Naft Masjed SoleymanAzadegan League | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Nassaji MazandaranAzadegan League | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Shenavarsazi QeshmAzadegan League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Damash GilanianAzadegan League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Be'sat KermanshahAzadegan League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| SaipaAzadegan League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Naft Bandar AbbasAzadegan League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Niroye ZaminiAzadegan League | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Ario Eslamshahr’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Azadegan League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Mes Rafsanjan are ranked 3 in Regular Season, with 8 points from 4 games.
Ario Eslamshahr are ranked 8 in Regular Season, with 6 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saipa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Mes Rafsanjan | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Ario Eslamshahr | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Fard Alborz | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Niroye Zamini | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Novin Ahvaz | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Mes Kerman | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Naft Gachsaran | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Mes Soongoun | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 2 |
| 16 | Havadar | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.