Ligi kuu Bara · Regular Season - 7
Mbeya CityvsKagera Sugar
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Ligi kuu Bara
- Venue
- Sokoine Stadium
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar: match review and analysis
Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar in Ligi kuu Bara on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Mbeya City recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Kagera Sugar recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses, with 7 scored and 20 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Mbeya City | Kagera Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 0 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 7 |
| Goals scored | 9 | 7 |
| Goals conceded | 5 | 20 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Mbeya City: (0.96 weighted goals scored + 2.11 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.53 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Kagera Sugar: (0.75 weighted goals scored + 0.55 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.65 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Mbeya City recent form
0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polisi TanzaniaLigi kuu Bara | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Tabora UnitedLigi kuu Bara | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Fountain GateLigi kuu Bara | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| MashujaaLigi kuu Bara | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Dodoma JijiLigi kuu Bara | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Geita GoldLigi kuu Bara | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Tanzania PrisonsLigi kuu Bara | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Tanzania PrisonsLigi kuu Bara | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Tabora UnitedLigi kuu Bara | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Dodoma JijiLigi kuu Bara | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Mbeya City’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Kagera Sugar recent form
0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fountain GateLigi kuu Bara | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AzamLigi kuu Bara | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| MashujaaLigi kuu Bara | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Geita GoldLigi kuu Bara | Away | 2–6 | Lost | |
| Singida Black StarsLigi kuu Bara | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| SimbaLigi kuu Bara | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| SimbaLigi kuu Bara | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| NamungoLigi kuu Bara | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MashujaaLigi kuu Bara | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| AzamLigi kuu Bara | Home | 2–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from Kagera Sugar’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Ligi kuu Bara — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Mbeya City are ranked 6 in Ligi kuu Bara, with 10 points from 6 games.
Kagera Sugar are ranked 16 in Ligi kuu Bara, with 2 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Simba | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Azam | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Mashujaa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Singida Black Stars | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Mbeya City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Polisi Tanzania | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Dodoma Jiji | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Geita Gold | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | JKT Tanzania | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Tabora United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Namungo | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Fountain Gate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | Kagera Sugar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.