Premier League · Regular Season - 5
Maroons3–0Lugazi
Mkeka wa Leo · Match result
Match prediction · 7 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Premier League
- Venue
- Mutesa II Stadium
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 3–0
- 90-minute score
- 3–0
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Maroons vs Lugazi: match review and analysis
Maroons vs Lugazi in Premier League on 7 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 3–0. Review the team form and league context below.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Maroons recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 15. Lugazi recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses, with 7 scored and 10 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Maroons | Lugazi |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 7 |
| Goals conceded | 15 | 10 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Maroons: (1.01 weighted goals scored + 1.02 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.01 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Lugazi: (0.70 weighted goals scored + 1.51 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.11 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Maroons recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPDFPremier League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Blacks PowerPremier League | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| NtugasazePremier League | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| URAPremier League | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| LugaziPremier League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| VipersPremier League | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Entebbe UPPCPremier League | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| KCCAPremier League | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| URAPremier League | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| PolicePremier League | Home | 3–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Maroons’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Lugazi recent form
0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolicePremier League | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Entebbe UPPCPremier League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| NECPremier League | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Kigezi HomeBoyzPremier League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| MaroonsPremier League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| ExpressPremier League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| BULPremier League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Mbarara CityPremier League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Buhimba SaintsPremier League | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| KitaraPremier League | Home | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Lugazi’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Premier League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Maroons are ranked 8 in Regular Season, with 6 points from 5 games.
Lugazi are ranked 9 in Regular Season, with 6 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | NEC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 3 | SC Villa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 4 | Blacks Power | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 9 |
| 5 | Police | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Entebbe UPPC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Vipers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 8 | Maroons | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Lugazi | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6 |
| 10 | Kitara | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | UPDF | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Express | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | KCCA | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | URA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Ntugasaze | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Mbarara City | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 17 | Kataka | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.