Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 10
HeraclesvsWaalwijk
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Eerste Divisie
- Venue
- Polman Stadion
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Heracles vs Waalwijk: match review and analysis
Heracles vs Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Heracles recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 31 and conceding 17. Waalwijk recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses, with 22 scored and 12 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Heracles | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 7 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 5 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 31 | 22 |
| Goals conceded | 17 | 12 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 10 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Heracles: (2.90 weighted goals scored + 1.20 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.05 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Waalwijk: (1.97 weighted goals scored + 1.45 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.71 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Heracles recent form
3.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond SportEerste Divisie | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| VitesseEerste Divisie | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Almere City FCEerste Divisie | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Jong AZEerste Divisie | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| De GraafschapEerste Divisie | Home | 5–0 | Won | |
| FC EindhovenEerste Divisie | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie | Away | 6–1 | Won | |
| Den BoschEerste Divisie | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| VVV VenloEerste Divisie | Away | 4–3 | Won | |
| ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs | Home | 3–5 | Lost |
Scores shown from Heracles’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Waalwijk recent form
2.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EmmenEerste Divisie | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| RodaEerste Divisie | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| MVVEerste Divisie | Home | 6–1 | Won | |
| Jong AjaxEerste Divisie | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| NAC BredaEerste Divisie | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisie | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Helmond SportEerste Divisie | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| DordrechtEerste Divisie | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| VitesseEerste Divisie | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| KifisiaFriendlies Clubs | Home | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Waalwijk’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Eerste Divisie — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Heracles are ranked 1 in Eerste Divisie: Regular season, with 22 points from 9 games.
Waalwijk are ranked 7 in Eerste Divisie: Regular season, with 14 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 12 | 16 | 22 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 19 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Emmen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | MVV | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 16 |
| 6 | Roda | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Waalwijk | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 14 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | NAC Breda | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Jong AZ | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 13 |
| 11 | FC Volendam | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 12 |
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | FC Eindhoven | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | FC OSS | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | Dordrecht | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 8 |
| 19 | De Graafschap | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 8 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 7 |
Heracles are ranked 1 in Eerste Divisie: Period 1, with 22 points from 9 games.
Waalwijk are ranked 7 in Eerste Divisie: Period 1, with 14 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 12 | 16 | 22 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 19 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Emmen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | MVV | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 16 |
| 6 | Roda | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Waalwijk | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 14 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | NAC Breda | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Jong AZ | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 13 |
| 11 | FC Volendam | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 12 |
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | FC Eindhoven | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | FC OSS | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Jong Ajax | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | Dordrecht | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 8 |
| 19 | De Graafschap | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 8 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 7 |
Waalwijk are ranked 12 in Eerste Divisie: Period 2, with 0 points from 0 games.
Heracles are ranked 16 in Eerste Divisie: Period 2, with 0 points from 0 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | De Graafschap | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | VVV Venlo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Den Bosch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Dordrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | FC Eindhoven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Emmen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Helmond Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | MVV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Almere City FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | FC OSS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | FC Volendam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Waalwijk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | NAC Breda | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Roda | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Vitesse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Heracles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Jong PSV U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Jong AZ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Waalwijk are ranked 12 in Eerste Divisie: Period 3, with 0 points from 0 games.
Heracles are ranked 16 in Eerste Divisie: Period 3, with 0 points from 0 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | De Graafschap | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | VVV Venlo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Den Bosch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Dordrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | FC Eindhoven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Emmen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Helmond Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | MVV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Almere City FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | FC OSS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | FC Volendam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Waalwijk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | NAC Breda | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Roda | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Vitesse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Heracles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Jong PSV U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Jong AZ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Waalwijk are ranked 12 in Eerste Divisie: Period 4, with 0 points from 0 games.
Heracles are ranked 16 in Eerste Divisie: Period 4, with 0 points from 0 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | De Graafschap | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | VVV Venlo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Den Bosch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Dordrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | FC Eindhoven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Emmen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Helmond Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | MVV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Almere City FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | FC OSS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | FC Volendam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Waalwijk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | NAC Breda | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Roda | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Vitesse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Heracles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Jong PSV U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Jong AZ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.