Non League Premier - Northern · Regular Season - 14
Gainsborough TrinityvsIlkeston Town
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 13 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Non League Premier - Northern
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
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Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Gainsborough Trinity vs Ilkeston Town: match review and analysis
Gainsborough Trinity vs Ilkeston Town in Non League Premier - Northern on 13 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Gainsborough Trinity recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 23 and conceding 18. Ilkeston Town recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 9 losses, with 5 scored and 29 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Gainsborough Trinity | Ilkeston Town |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 0 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 9 |
| Goals scored | 23 | 5 |
| Goals conceded | 18 | 29 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Gainsborough Trinity: (2.36 weighted goals scored + 2.92 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.64 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Ilkeston Town: (0.52 weighted goals scored + 1.82 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.17 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
MICHEZO 10 ILIYOPITA
Gainsborough Trinity recent form
2.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC EmleyNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 2–1 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Whitby TownNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 6–2 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Anstey NomadsFA Cup | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| BuryFA Trophy | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| LeamingtonFA Cup | Home | 3–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| LeamingtonFA Cup | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AvroNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Sherwood CollieryFA Cup | Away | 4–2 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Cleethorpes TownNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Ashton UnitedNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 2–1 | Baada ya kugoogle |
Scores shown from Gainsborough Trinity’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
MICHEZO 10 ILIYOPITA
Ilkeston Town recent form
0.50 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redcar AthleticNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 0–5 | Lost | |
| Guiseley AFCNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Lancaster CityNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| RylandsNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Anstey NomadsFA Trophy | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| WorkingtonNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| LeamingtonFA Cup | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| QuornNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| BuryNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 0–7 | Lost | |
| Ashton UnitedNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Ilkeston Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Non League Premier - Northern — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Gainsborough Trinity are ranked 9 in Regular Season, with 19 points from 11 games.
Ilkeston Town are ranked 21 in Regular Season, with 7 points from 13 games.
| Pos | Timu | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 7 | 23 | 30 |
| 2 | Redcar Athletic | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 17 | 28 |
| 3 | Guiseley AFC | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 25 |
| 4 | Avro | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 20 | 13 | 25 |
| 5 | Curzon Ashton | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Workington | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 21 |
| 7 | Rylands | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Bury | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 19 |
| 9 | Gainsborough Trinity | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 19 |
| 10 | Warrington Town | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 19 |
| 11 | Alfreton Town | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 18 |
| 12 | Lancaster City | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 17 |
| 13 | Hyde United | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
| 14 | Ashton United | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 13 |
| 15 | Quorn | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 13 |
| 16 | Whitby Town | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 13 |
| 17 | Stockton Town | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 12 |
| 18 | Leek Town | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 11 |
| 19 | AFC Emley | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 10 |
| 20 | Bamber Bridge | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 10 |
| 21 | Ilkeston Town | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 31 | -24 | 7 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.