Primera B Metropolitana · Regular Season - 39
ExcursionistasvsVilla San Carlos
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera B Metropolitana
- Venue
- Excursionistas Stadium
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Excursionistas vs Villa San Carlos: match review and analysis
Excursionistas vs Villa San Carlos in Primera B Metropolitana on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Excursionistas recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 19 and conceding 11. Villa San Carlos recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses, with 10 scored and 4 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Excursionistas | Villa San Carlos |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 7 | 6 |
| Draws | 0 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 19 | 10 |
| Goals conceded | 11 | 4 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 3 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Excursionistas: (2.05 weighted goals scored + 0.38 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.21 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Villa San Carlos: (0.93 weighted goals scored + 0.91 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.92 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Excursionistas recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LiniersPrimera B Metropolitana | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Real PilarPrimera B Metropolitana | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| UAI UrquizaPrimera B Metropolitana | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Villa DalminePrimera B Metropolitana | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| ItuzaingóPrimera B Metropolitana | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Arsenal SarandiPrimera B Metropolitana | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Argentino de MerloPrimera B Metropolitana | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Talleres RemediosPrimera B Metropolitana | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Deportivo LaferrerePrimera B Metropolitana | Home | 5–3 | Won | |
| Brown DE AdroguePrimera B Metropolitana | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Excursionistas’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Villa San Carlos recent form
1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal SarandiPrimera B Metropolitana | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Argentino de MerloPrimera B Metropolitana | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Talleres RemediosPrimera B Metropolitana | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Deportivo LaferrerePrimera B Metropolitana | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Brown DE AdroguePrimera B Metropolitana | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Deportivo ArmenioPrimera B Metropolitana | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| FlandriaPrimera B Metropolitana | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Argentino QuilmesPrimera B Metropolitana | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Defensores UnidosPrimera B Metropolitana | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| ComunicacionesPrimera B Metropolitana | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Villa San Carlos’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera B Metropolitana — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Excursionistas are ranked 1 in Prim B Metro, with 74 points from 38 games.
Villa San Carlos are ranked 13 in Prim B Metro, with 47 points from 38 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 38 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 59 | 30 | 29 | 74 |
| 2 | Arsenal Sarandi | 38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 50 | 25 | 25 | 69 |
| 3 | Talleres Remedios | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 40 | 23 | 17 | 67 |
| 4 | Sportivo Italiano | 38 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 45 | 28 | 17 | 65 |
| 5 | Villa Dalmine | 38 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 38 | 23 | 15 | 64 |
| 6 | Deportivo Camioneros | 38 | 17 | 12 | 9 | 43 | 29 | 14 | 63 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 38 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 42 | 38 | 4 | 61 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 38 | 4 | 60 |
| 9 | Comunicaciones | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 39 | 34 | 5 | 55 |
| 10 | Deportivo Laferrere | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 51 |
| 11 | San Martín Burzaco | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 50 |
| 12 | Dock Sud | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 40 | 42 | -2 | 47 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 47 |
| 14 | Argentino de Merlo | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 44 |
| 15 | Deportivo Merlo | 38 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 44 |
| 16 | Argentino Quilmes | 38 | 9 | 16 | 13 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 43 |
| 17 | Liniers | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 43 |
| 18 | Defensores Unidos | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 41 |
| 19 | Brown DE Adrogue | 38 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 39 |
| 20 | Flandria | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 39 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 38 | 5 | 20 | 13 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 35 |
| 22 | Ituzaingó | 38 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 25 | 62 | -37 | 15 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.