Non League Premier - Southern South · Regular Season - 12
Evesham UnitedvsBath City
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 13 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Non League Premier - Southern South
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Evesham United vs Bath City: match review and analysis
Evesham United vs Bath City in Non League Premier - Southern South on 13 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Evesham United recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 13 and conceding 16. Bath City recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses, with 14 scored and 10 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Evesham United | Bath City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 5 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 5 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 13 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 16 | 10 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Evesham United: (1.31 weighted goals scored + 0.98 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.14 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Bath City: (1.62 weighted goals scored + 1.38 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.50 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
MICHEZO 10 ILIYOPITA
Evesham United recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UxbridgeNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Poole TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Chippenham TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 2–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Stratford TownFA Trophy | Home | 3–1 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Redditch UnitedFA Cup | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| BerkhamstedNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Belper TownFA Cup | Away | 3–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Gloucester CityNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 2–1 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Plymouth ParkwayNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Hanworth VillaNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 1–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from Evesham United’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
MICHEZO 10 ILIYOPITA
Bath City recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gosport BoroughNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Malvern TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 2–1 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Plymouth ParkwayFA Trophy | Away | 3–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Taunton TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 3–1 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Chippenham TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 2–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| WeymouthFA Cup | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Frome TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| UxbridgeNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Basingstoke TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Hanworth VillaNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 1–0 | Baada ya kugoogle |
Scores shown from Bath City’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Non League Premier - Southern South — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Bath City are ranked 5 in Regular Season, with 17 points from 10 games.
Evesham United are ranked 13 in Regular Season, with 13 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Timu | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poole Town | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 24 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 23 |
| 3 | Plymouth Parkway | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Hanworth Villa | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Bath City | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Frome Town | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Chichester City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 | Berkhamsted | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | Wimborne Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 15 |
| 10 | Chertsey Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 15 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Taunton Town | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Evesham United | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Basingstoke Town | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Yate Town | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 12 |
| 16 | Sholing | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 11 |
| 17 | Bracknell Town | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 | Hanwell Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
| 19 | Gloucester City | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Chippenham Town | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 8 |
| 21 | Havant & Wville | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 5 |
| 22 | Malvern Town | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.