Non League Premier - Isthmian · Regular Season - 11
CheshuntvsAveley
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 6 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Non League Premier - Isthmian
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Cheshunt vs Aveley: match review and analysis
Cheshunt vs Aveley in Non League Premier - Isthmian on 6 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Cheshunt recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 10 and conceding 17. Aveley recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses, with 23 scored and 19 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Cheshunt | Aveley |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 5 |
| Draws | 5 | 0 |
| Losses | 4 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 10 | 23 |
| Goals conceded | 17 | 19 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 10 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Cheshunt: (1.19 weighted goals scored + 1.88 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.54 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Aveley: (2.07 weighted goals scored + 1.60 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.84 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Cheshunt recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cray WanderersFA Trophy | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| LewesNon League Premier - Isthmian | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Welling UnitedNon League Premier - Isthmian | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Eastbourne BoroughNon League Premier - Isthmian | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| AveleyFA Cup | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| St Albans CityNon League Premier - Isthmian | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| WhyteleafeNon League Premier - Isthmian | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Burgess Hill TownNon League Premier - Isthmian | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Dulwich HamletNon League Premier - Isthmian | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Cray WanderersNon League Premier - Isthmian | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Cheshunt’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Aveley recent form
2.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dulwich HamletNon League Premier - Isthmian | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| WareFA Trophy | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Brentwood TownFA Cup | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Wingate & FinchleyNon League Premier - Isthmian | Home | 3–4 | Lost | |
| LeatherheadNon League Premier - Isthmian | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| CheshuntFA Cup | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| Stanway RoversNon League Premier - Isthmian | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| LewesNon League Premier - Isthmian | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Three BridgesNon League Premier - Isthmian | Away | 5–1 | Won | |
| WhitehawkNon League Premier - Isthmian | Home | 3–2 | Won |
Scores shown from Aveley’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Non League Premier - Isthmian — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Aveley are ranked 15 in Regular Season, with 10 points from 9 games.
Cheshunt are ranked 18 in Regular Season, with 8 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Welling United | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Dartford | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Carshalton Athletic | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 21 |
| 4 | Lewes | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Enfield Town | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Dulwich Hamlet | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 16 |
| 7 | Eastbourne Borough | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 16 |
| 8 | Leatherhead | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
| 9 | St Albans City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Ramsgate | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 13 |
| 11 | Burgess Hill Town | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 13 |
| 12 | Cray Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 13 | Chatham Town | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 12 |
| 14 | Wingate & Finchley | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Aveley | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 10 |
| 16 | Brentwood Town | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Maldon & Tiptree | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 9 |
| 18 | Cheshunt | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 | Whyteleafe | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Three Bridges | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 5 |
| 21 | Whitehawk | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 5 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.