Non League Premier - Northern · Regular Season - 14
BuryvsLeek Town
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 13 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Non League Premier - Northern
- Venue
- Gigg Lane
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Bury vs Leek Town: match review and analysis
Bury vs Leek Town in Non League Premier - Northern on 13 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Bury recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 33 and conceding 11. Leek Town recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with 24 scored and 20 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Bury | Leek Town |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 33 | 24 |
| Goals conceded | 11 | 20 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 10 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Bury: (3.33 weighted goals scored + 1.86 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.59 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Leek Town: (2.36 weighted goals scored + 1.16 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.76 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
MICHEZO 10 ILIYOPITA
Bury recent form
3.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfreton TownNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 3–2 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Stockton TownNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Bromsgrove SportingFA Cup | Home | 2–1 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Gainsborough TrinityFA Trophy | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| WorkingtonFA Cup | Home | 5–1 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| AFC EmleyNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 4–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Wythenshawe AmateursFA Cup | Home | 8–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Hyde UnitedNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Ilkeston TownNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 7–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Lancaster CityNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Bury’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
MICHEZO 10 ILIYOPITA
Leek Town recent form
2.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton UnitedNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| RylandsNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Worcester CityFA Trophy | Away | 2–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Hyde UnitedNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 2–1 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Bromsgrove SportingFA Cup | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Redcar AthleticNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Sporting KhalsaFA Cup | Away | 5–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Warrington TownNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| WorkingtonNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| AvroNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 4–4 | Draw |
Scores shown from Leek Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Non League Premier - Northern — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Bury are ranked 8 in Regular Season, with 19 points from 11 games.
Leek Town are ranked 18 in Regular Season, with 11 points from 12 games.
| Pos | Timu | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 7 | 23 | 30 |
| 2 | Redcar Athletic | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 17 | 28 |
| 3 | Guiseley AFC | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 25 |
| 4 | Avro | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 20 | 13 | 25 |
| 5 | Curzon Ashton | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Workington | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 21 |
| 7 | Rylands | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Bury | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 19 |
| 9 | Gainsborough Trinity | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 19 |
| 10 | Warrington Town | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 19 |
| 11 | Alfreton Town | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 18 |
| 12 | Lancaster City | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 17 |
| 13 | Hyde United | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
| 14 | Ashton United | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 13 |
| 15 | Quorn | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 13 |
| 16 | Whitby Town | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 13 |
| 17 | Stockton Town | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 12 |
| 18 | Leek Town | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 11 |
| 19 | AFC Emley | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 10 |
| 20 | Bamber Bridge | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 10 |
| 21 | Ilkeston Town | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 31 | -24 | 7 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.