Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5
Borussia DortmundvsWerder Bremen
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
Not Started
This match has finished. Go back home for the latest fixtures →
THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Bundesliga
- Venue
- Signal Iduna Park
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: match review and analysis
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen in Bundesliga on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Borussia Dortmund recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 24 and conceding 10. Werder Bremen recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 19 scored and 20 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 8 | 5 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 24 | 19 |
| Goals conceded | 10 | 20 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Borussia Dortmund: (2.43 weighted goals scored + 2.54 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.48 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Werder Bremen: (1.70 weighted goals scored + 0.95 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.33 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Borussia Dortmund recent form
2.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB StuttgartBundesliga | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| VillarrealUEFA Champions League | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| HEBCDFB Pokal | Away | 5–0 | Won | |
| Hamburger SVBundesliga | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Bayern MünchenSuper Cup | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| AS RomaFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| ArsenalEmirates Cup | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| FC TokyoFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Borussia Dortmund’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Werder Bremen recent form
1.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TwenteFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–7 | Lost | |
| FC AugsburgBundesliga | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| 1. FC KölnBundesliga | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| RB LeipzigBundesliga | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| SC FreiburgBundesliga | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Lüneburger SK HansaDFB Pokal | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| AuxerreFriendlies Clubs | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| SC Paderborn 07Friendlies Clubs | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Energie CottbusFriendlies Clubs | Away | 4–2 | Won | |
| VfL BochumFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Werder Bremen’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Bundesliga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Borussia Dortmund are ranked 1 in Bundesliga, with 12 points from 4 games.
Werder Bremen are ranked 8 in Bundesliga, with 7 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 |
| 4 | FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 6 | FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | FC Schalke 04 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | SC Paderborn 07 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.