First League · Regular Season - 9
BKMA IIvsArarat II
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- First League
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
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Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
BKMA II vs Ararat II: match review and analysis
BKMA II vs Ararat II in First League on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
BKMA II recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 21 and conceding 12. Ararat II recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses, with 12 scored and 24 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | BKMA II | Ararat II |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 0 |
| Losses | 3 | 7 |
| Goals scored | 21 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 12 | 24 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
BKMA II: (1.96 weighted goals scored + 1.87 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.92 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Ararat II: (1.57 weighted goals scored + 1.25 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.41 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
BKMA II recent form
2.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Araks AraratFirst League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| AndranikFirst League | Home | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Sardarapat 2First League | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| Bentonit IjevanFirst League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Banants IIFirst League | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| MikaFirst League | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Ararat-Armenia IIFirst League | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Lernayin ArtsakhFirst League | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| SyunikFriendlies Clubs | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Shirak IIFirst League | Away | 3–3 | Draw |
Scores shown from BKMA II’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Ararat II recent form
1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pyunik IIFirst League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Noah IIFirst League | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| Olympia YerevanFirst League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| HayqFirst League | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Shirak IIFirst League | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Araks AraratFirst League | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| AndranikFirst League | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| SyunikFirst League | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| AndranikFirst League | Home | 1–6 | Lost | |
| Ararat-Armenia IIFirst League | Away | 0–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Ararat II’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
First League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
BKMA II are ranked 3 in First League, with 16 points from 8 games.
Ararat II are ranked 11 in First League, with 6 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympia Yerevan | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Andranik | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 16 |
| 3 | BKMA II | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | Bentonit Ijevan | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 14 |
| 5 | Araks Ararat | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Lernayin Artsakh | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Pyunik II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Mika | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Banants II | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 7 |
| 10 | Shirak II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 7 |
| 11 | Ararat II | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Noah II | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 6 |
| 13 | Ararat-Armenia II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 5 |
| 14 | Sardarapat 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 3 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.