World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · Semi-finals
Belarus WvsItaly W
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe
- Venue
- David Petriashvili Stadium
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Belarus W vs Italy W: match review and analysis
Belarus W vs Italy W in World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Belarus W recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 20 and conceding 4. Italy W recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, with 13 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Belarus W | Italy W |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 8 | 2 |
| Draws | 0 | 4 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 20 | 13 |
| Goals conceded | 4 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Belarus W: (2.27 weighted goals scored + 1.06 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.67 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Italy W: (1.61 weighted goals scored + 0.41 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.01 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Belarus W recent form
2.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armenia WWorld Cup - Women - Qualification Europe | Home | 6–0 | Won | |
| Kazakhstan WWorld Cup - Women - Qualification Europe | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Armenia WWorld Cup - Women - Qualification Europe | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Kazakhstan WWorld Cup - Women - Qualification Europe | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Greece WFriendlies Women | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina WFriendlies Women | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Malta WFriendlies Women | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Malta WFriendlies Women | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Azerbaijan WFriendlies Women | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Azerbaijan WFriendlies Women | Home | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Belarus W’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Italy W recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden WWorld Cup - Women - Qualification Europe | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Serbia WWorld Cup - Women - Qualification Europe | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Denmark WWorld Cup - Women - Qualification Europe | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Serbia WWorld Cup - Women - Qualification Europe | Away | 6–0 | Won | |
| Denmark WWorld Cup - Women - Qualification Europe | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Sweden WWorld Cup - Women - Qualification Europe | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| USA WFriendlies Women | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| USA WFriendlies Women | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Brazil WFriendlies Women | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Japan WFriendlies Women | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Italy W’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe — current table
Season 2027 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Italy W are ranked 2 in League A - Group A, with 9 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denmark W | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | Italy W | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 9 |
| 3 | Sweden W | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Serbia W | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 17 | -15 | 1 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France W | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Netherlands W | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Republic of Ireland W | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Poland W | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 3 | 18 | 15 |
| 2 | England W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Iceland W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 6 |
| 4 | Ukraine W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 19 | -17 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 17 | 16 |
| 2 | Norway W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 12 |
| 3 | Austria W | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 |
| 4 | Slovenia W | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wales W | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 14 |
| 2 | Czechia W | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 11 |
| 3 | Albania W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 | Montenegro W | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 1 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 16 |
| 2 | Turkey W | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Northern Ireland W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Malta W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Finland W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Slovakia W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 6 |
| 4 | Latvia W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scotland W | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 22 | 14 |
| 2 | Belgium W | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 21 | 14 |
| 3 | Israel W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 6 |
| 4 | Luxembourg W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 34 | -33 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lithuania W | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 11 |
| 2 | Bosnia-Herzegovina W | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 11 |
| 3 | Estonia W | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Liechtenstein W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 34 | -31 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kosovo W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 15 |
| 2 | Croatia W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 15 |
| 3 | Bulgaria W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 |
| 4 | Gibraltar W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 32 | -31 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hungary W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 19 | 16 |
| 2 | Azerbaijan W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | North Macedonia W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 6 |
| 4 | Andorra W | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 1 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greece W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | Faroe Islands W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 3 | Georgia W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Romania W | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Moldova W | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Cyprus W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 1 |
Belarus W are ranked 1 in League C - Group F, with 9 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belarus W | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Kazakhstan W | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Armenia W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.