UEFA Nations League · League C - 4
BelarusvsFinland
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 6 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- UEFA Nations League
- Venue
- Illovszky Rudolf Stadion
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Belarus vs Finland: match review and analysis
Belarus vs Finland in UEFA Nations League on 6 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Belarus recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 16 and conceding 10. Finland recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, with 17 scored and 13 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Belarus | Finland |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 16 | 17 |
| Goals conceded | 10 | 13 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Belarus: (1.90 weighted goals scored + 1.29 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.59 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Finland: (1.91 weighted goals scored + 0.88 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.40 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Belarus recent form
1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San MarinoUEFA Nations League | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| FinlandUEFA Nations League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| AlbaniaUEFA Nations League | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Burkina FasoFriendlies | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| SyriaFriendlies | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| ArmeniaFriendlies | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| CyprusFriendlies | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| GreeceWorld Cup - Qualification Europe | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| DenmarkWorld Cup - Qualification Europe | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| ScotlandWorld Cup - Qualification Europe | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Belarus’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Finland recent form
1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AlbaniaUEFA Nations League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| BelarusUEFA Nations League | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| San MarinoUEFA Nations League | Away | 7–0 | Won | |
| HungaryFriendlies | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| GermanyFriendlies | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Cape Verde IslandsFIFA Series | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| New ZealandFIFA Series | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| AndorraFriendlies | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| MaltaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| NetherlandsWorld Cup - Qualification Europe | Away | 0–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from Finland’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
UEFA Nations League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 4 | Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | England | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 6 |
| 3 | Croatia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
| 4 | Czechia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Slovenia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Scotland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | FYR Macedonia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Hungary | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Georgia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austria | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Kosovo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 3 | Rep. Of Ireland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 4 | Israel | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| 3 | Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
Finland are ranked 1 in League C - Group A, with 7 points from 3 games.
Belarus are ranked 3 in League C - Group A, with 4 points from 3 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| 2 | Albania | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Belarus | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | San Marino | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 2 | Cyprus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Armenia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slovakia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Moldova | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Estonia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Bulgaria | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Andorra | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.