Non League Premier - Northern · Regular Season - 14
Ashton UnitedvsAlfreton Town
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 13 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Non League Premier - Northern
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
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Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Ashton United vs Alfreton Town: match review and analysis
Ashton United vs Alfreton Town in Non League Premier - Northern on 13 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Ashton United recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 14 and conceding 16. Alfreton Town recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses, with 16 scored and 13 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Ashton United | Alfreton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 5 |
| Draws | 5 | 0 |
| Losses | 4 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 14 | 16 |
| Goals conceded | 16 | 13 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Ashton United: (1.39 weighted goals scored + 1.45 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.42 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Alfreton Town: (1.48 weighted goals scored + 1.62 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.55 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
MICHEZO 10 ILIYOPITA
Ashton United recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leek TownNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| QuornNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Warrington TownFA Trophy | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| BuxtonFA Cup | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Cleethorpes TownNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Whitby TownFA Cup | Away | 5–2 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Curzon AshtonNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Gainsborough TrinityNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Ilkeston TownNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AFC EmleyNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Ashton United’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
MICHEZO 10 ILIYOPITA
Alfreton Town recent form
1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BuryNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| United of ManchesterNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 1–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Redcar AthleticNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Guiseley AFCNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 1–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Shifnal Town FCFA Trophy | Home | 2–1 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Bamber BridgeNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Stratford TownFA Cup | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Whitby TownNon League Premier - Northern | Away | 4–1 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| RylandsNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Hyde UnitedNon League Premier - Northern | Home | 4–0 | Baada ya kugoogle |
Scores shown from Alfreton Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Non League Premier - Northern — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Alfreton Town are ranked 11 in Regular Season, with 18 points from 13 games.
Ashton United are ranked 14 in Regular Season, with 13 points from 11 games.
| Pos | Timu | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 7 | 23 | 30 |
| 2 | Redcar Athletic | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 17 | 28 |
| 3 | Guiseley AFC | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 25 |
| 4 | Avro | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 20 | 13 | 25 |
| 5 | Curzon Ashton | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Workington | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 21 |
| 7 | Rylands | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Bury | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 19 |
| 9 | Gainsborough Trinity | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 19 |
| 10 | Warrington Town | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 19 |
| 11 | Alfreton Town | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 18 |
| 12 | Lancaster City | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 17 |
| 13 | Hyde United | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
| 14 | Ashton United | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 13 |
| 15 | Quorn | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 13 |
| 16 | Whitby Town | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 13 |
| 17 | Stockton Town | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 12 |
| 18 | Leek Town | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 11 |
| 19 | AFC Emley | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 10 |
| 20 | Bamber Bridge | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 10 |
| 21 | Ilkeston Town | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 31 | -24 | 7 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.