National Soccer League · Regular Season - 4
AS KigalivsGicumbi
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- National Soccer League
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
AS Kigali vs Gicumbi: match review and analysis
AS Kigali vs Gicumbi in National Soccer League on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
AS Kigali recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 7 and conceding 14. Gicumbi recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses, with 14 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | AS Kigali | Gicumbi |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 0 |
| Losses | 6 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 7 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
AS Kigali: (0.70 weighted goals scored + 1.44 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.07 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Gicumbi: (1.41 weighted goals scored + 1.39 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.40 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
AS Kigali recent form
0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hilal OmdurmanNational Soccer League | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Etoile de l'EstNational Soccer League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MarinesNational Soccer League | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| MusanzeNational Soccer League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| RutsiroNational Soccer League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| GicumbiNational Soccer League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| APRNational Soccer League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| GorillaNational Soccer League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Al Hilal OmdurmanNational Soccer League | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Gasogi UnitedNational Soccer League | Home | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from AS Kigali’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Gicumbi recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etoile de l'EstNational Soccer League | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| AmagajuNational Soccer League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| PoliceNational Soccer League | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| APRNational Soccer League | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| MukuraNational Soccer League | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| AS KigaliNational Soccer League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| BugeseraNational Soccer League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Gasogi UnitedNational Soccer League | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Al MerreikhNational Soccer League | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| RutsiroNational Soccer League | Home | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Gicumbi’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
National Soccer League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Gicumbi are ranked 1 in Regular Season, with 9 points from 3 games.
AS Kigali are ranked 16 in Regular Season, with 1 points from 3 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Etincelles | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Amagaju | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Mukura | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Marines | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Police | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Gorilla | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Musanze | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Kiyovu Sports | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Sunrise | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Rayon Sports | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Etoile de l'Est | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | AS Kigali | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 17 | Bugesera | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gasogi United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.