Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · Group Stage - 2
AngolavsMalawi
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 6 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Angola vs Malawi: match review and analysis
Angola vs Malawi in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on 6 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Angola recorded 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Malawi recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, with 8 scored and 8 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Angola | Malawi |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 6 | 4 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 8 |
| Goals conceded | 10 | 8 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 4 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Angola: (1.17 weighted goals scored + 0.75 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.96 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Malawi: (0.69 weighted goals scored + 0.84 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.76 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Angola recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EgyptAfrica Cup of Nations - Qualification | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Central African RepublicFriendlies | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| MauritaniaFriendlies | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| EgyptAfrica Cup of Nations | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| ZimbabweAfrica Cup of Nations | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| South AfricaAfrica Cup of Nations | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| ZambiaFriendlies | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| ArgentinaFriendlies | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| CameroonWorld Cup - Qualification Africa | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| EswatiniWorld Cup - Qualification Africa | Away | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Angola’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Malawi recent form
0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South SudanAfrica Cup of Nations - Qualification | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| EthiopiaFriendlies | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| EthiopiaFriendlies | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| BotswanaFriendlies | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Zambia U23Friendlies | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| LesothoFriendlies | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| LesothoFriendlies | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Sao Tome and PrincipeWorld Cup - Qualification Africa | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| LiberiaWorld Cup - Qualification Africa | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| NamibiaWorld Cup - Qualification Africa | Away | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Malawi’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification — current table
Season 2027 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Gabon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Niger | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Lesotho | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
Malawi are ranked 2 in Group B, with 3 points from 1 games.
Angola are ranked 3 in Group B, with 1 points from 1 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egypt | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 2 | Malawi | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Angola | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | South Sudan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Gambia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Somalia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 4 | Ghana | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Guinea | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Eritrea | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 |
| 4 | Kenya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Congo DR | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Zimbabwe | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Equatorial Guinea | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Sierra Leone | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Central African Republic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cameroon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Comoros | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 3 | Namibia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Congo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uganda | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Botswana | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | Libya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Algeria | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Zambia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Togo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Burundi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Senegal | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Mozambique | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Sudan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rwanda | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Mali | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Cape Verde Islands | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
| 4 | Liberia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guinea-Bissau | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 3 | Tanzania | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | Madagascar | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.