Coppa Italia Serie D · Round of 64
Paganese1–1Real Normanna
Mkeka wa Leo · Match result
Match prediction · 7 October 2026
Match Finished
This match has finished. Go back home for the latest fixtures →
THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Coppa Italia Serie D
- Venue
- Stadio Marcello Torre
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–1
- 90-minute score
- 1–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Paganese vs Real Normanna: match review and analysis
Paganese vs Real Normanna in Coppa Italia Serie D on 7 October 2026 has finished after a penalty shootout. The match goal score was 1–1, excluding shootout kicks. Review the team form and league context below.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Paganese recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 21 and conceding 16. Real Normanna recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, with 14 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Paganese | Real Normanna |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 21 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 16 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Paganese: (2.07 weighted goals scored + 1.80 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.94 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Real Normanna: (1.45 weighted goals scored + 1.55 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.50 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Paganese recent form
2.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SarneseSerie D - Girone G | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| GelbisonSerie D - Girone G | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| TrastevereSerie D - Girone G | Away | 6–1 | Won | |
| AfragoleseSerie D - Girone G | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Latte DolceSerie D - Girone G | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| UnipomeziaSerie D - Girone G | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Martina FrancaSerie D - Girone H | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Città di FasanoSerie D - Girone H | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Città di FasanoSerie D - Girone H | Away | 0–6 | Lost | |
| Nola 1925Serie D - Girone H | Home | 5–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Paganese’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Real Normanna recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BrindisiSerie D - Girone H | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| GravinaSerie D - Girone H | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| USD PalmeseSerie D - Girone H | Away | 4–3 | Won | |
| Martina FrancaSerie D - Girone H | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| IschiaSerie D - Girone H | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| MelfiSerie D - Girone H | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| GravinaSerie D - Girone H | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Città di FasanoSerie D - Girone H | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| AfragoleseSerie D - Girone H | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Martina FrancaSerie D - Girone H | Away | 0–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Real Normanna’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Coppa Italia Serie D — current table
No league table is currently available for this competition and season. Some cup rounds and friendlies do not have standings.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.