Super League · Regular Season - 23
Neftchi2–2Xorazm
Mkeka wa Leo · Match result
Match prediction · 7 October 2026
Match Finished
This match has finished. Go back home for the latest fixtures →
THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Super League
- Venue
- Istiqlol Stadium
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 2–2
- 90-minute score
- 2–2
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Neftchi vs Xorazm: match review and analysis
Neftchi vs Xorazm in Super League on 7 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 2–2. Review the team form and league context below.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Neftchi recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 19 and conceding 11. Xorazm recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses, with 9 scored and 17 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Neftchi | Xorazm |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 7 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 19 | 9 |
| Goals conceded | 11 | 17 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Neftchi: (1.84 weighted goals scored + 1.77 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.80 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Xorazm: (0.80 weighted goals scored + 0.94 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.87 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Neftchi recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LokomotivSuper League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Al Quwa Al JawiyaAFC Champions League Elite | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| SurkhonSuper League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| NasafSuper League | Away | 2–6 | Lost | |
| PakhtakorCup | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| SogdianaSuper League | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| BuxoroSuper League | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| AndijanSuper League | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| QizilqumSuper League | Home | 5–0 | Won | |
| Dinamo SamarqandSuper League | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Neftchi’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Xorazm recent form
0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QizilqumSuper League | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| OlmaliqCup | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| SogdianaSuper League | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| OlmaliqSuper League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| AndijanSuper League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| LokomotivSuper League | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Dinamo SamarqandSuper League | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Mash'alSuper League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| NavbahorSuper League | Away | 1–5 | Lost | |
| SurkhonSuper League | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Xorazm’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Super League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Neftchi are ranked 1 in Super League, with 52 points from 23 games.
Xorazm are ranked 14 in Super League, with 22 points from 23 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 52 | 19 | 33 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 22 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 39 | 20 | 19 | 49 |
| 3 | Navbahor | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 39 | 21 | 18 | 44 |
| 4 | Olmaliq | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 35 |
| 5 | Lokomotiv | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 28 | 8 | 35 |
| 6 | Nasaf | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 34 |
| 7 | Buxoro | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 29 | 3 | 34 |
| 8 | Andijan | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Dinamo Samarqand | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 30 |
| 10 | Qizilqum | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 29 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 28 |
| 12 | Surkhon | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 22 |
| 14 | Xorazm | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 20 | 34 | -14 | 22 |
| 15 | Kokand-1912 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 20 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 22 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 44 | -33 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.