Prva Liga · Regular Season - 12
TSC Backa Topola4–1Grafičar
Mkeka wa Leo · Match result
Match prediction · 5 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 4 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Prva Liga
- Venue
- TSC Arena
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 4–1
- 90-minute score
- 4–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
TSC Backa Topola vs Grafičar: match review and analysis
TSC Backa Topola vs Grafičar in Prva Liga on 5 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 4–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
TSC Backa Topola recorded 4 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 19 and conceding 12. Grafičar recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses, with 4 scored and 5 conceded across 4 games.
| Statistic | TSC Backa Topola | Grafičar |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 4 |
| Wins | 4 | 1 |
| Draws | 6 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 19 | 4 |
| Goals conceded | 12 | 5 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 2 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
TSC Backa Topola: (1.79 weighted goals scored + 1.11 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.45 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Grafičar: (0.98 weighted goals scored + 1.04 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.01 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
TSC Backa Topola recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borac CacakPrva Liga | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| DubočicaPrva Liga | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| NaftagasPrva Liga | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| LoznicaPrva Liga | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| FK VozdovacPrva Liga | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Semendrija 1924Prva Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| NapredakPrva Liga | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVPrva Liga | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Jedinstvo UbPrva Liga | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| JavorPrva Liga | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from TSC Backa Topola’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 4 GAMES
Grafičar recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 2 of 4 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoznicaPrva Liga | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| FK VozdovacPrva Liga | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Semendrija 1924Prva Liga | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| NapredakPrva Liga | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Grafičar’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 4 usable previous results were available.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Prva Liga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
TSC Backa Topola are ranked 2 in Prva Liga, with 24 points from 12 games.
Grafičar are ranked 13 in Prva Liga, with 10 points from 12 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borac Cacak | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 25 |
| 2 | TSC Backa Topola | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 24 |
| 3 | Semendrija 1924 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
| 4 | Javor | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 29 | 14 | 15 | 23 |
| 5 | OFK Vršac | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Metalac GM | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Napredak | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 17 |
| 8 | Dubočica | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | FK Vozdovac | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 | Loznica | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 15 |
| 12 | Naftagas | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 13 |
| 13 | Grafičar | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Teleoptik | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 10 |
| 15 | Jedinstvo Ub | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 8 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.