Friendlies · Friendly International
Mauritius2–3Sri Lanka
Mkeka wa Leo · Match result
Match prediction · 5 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Friendlies
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 2–3
- 90-minute score
- 2–3
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Mauritius vs Sri Lanka: match review and analysis
Mauritius vs Sri Lanka in Friendlies on 5 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 2–3. Review the team form and league context below.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Mauritius recorded 1 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Sri Lanka recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses, with 15 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Mauritius | Sri Lanka |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 5 |
| Draws | 6 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 4 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 7 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 4 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Mauritius: (0.59 weighted goals scored + 1.39 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.99 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Sri Lanka: (1.64 weighted goals scored + 0.62 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.13 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Mauritius recent form
0.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sri LankaFriendlies | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| SomaliaAfrica Cup of Nations - Qualification | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| SomaliaAfrica Cup of Nations - Qualification | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| LibyaWorld Cup - Qualification Africa | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| CameroonWorld Cup - Qualification Africa | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| AngolaWorld Cup - Qualification Africa | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Cape Verde IslandsWorld Cup - Qualification Africa | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| South AfricaCOSAFA Cup | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MozambiqueCOSAFA Cup | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| ZimbabweCOSAFA Cup | Home | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Mauritius’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Sri Lanka recent form
1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MauritiusFriendlies | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| SeychellesFriendlies | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| SeychellesFriendlies | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| BhutanFriendlies | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Chinese TaipeiAsian Cup - Qualification | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| ThailandAsian Cup - Qualification | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| TurkmenistanAsian Cup - Qualification | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| TurkmenistanAsian Cup - Qualification | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| MaldivesFriendlies | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| MaldivesFriendlies | Home | 0–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Sri Lanka’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Friendlies — current table
No league table is currently available for this competition and season. Some cup rounds and friendlies do not have standings.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.