Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 10
TapatíovsTepatitlán
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 13 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Liga de Expansión MX
- Venue
- Estadio Akron
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Tapatío vs Tepatitlán: match review and analysis
Tapatío vs Tepatitlán in Liga de Expansión MX on 13 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Tapatío recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 19 and conceding 19. Tepatitlán recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses, with 9 scored and 29 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Tapatío | Tepatitlán |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 5 | 7 |
| Goals scored | 19 | 9 |
| Goals conceded | 19 | 29 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Tapatío: (1.98 weighted goals scored + 2.87 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.42 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Tepatitlán: (0.86 weighted goals scored + 2.01 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.43 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
MICHEZO 10 ILIYOPITA
Tapatío recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA La PazLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 2–4 | Lost | |
| CancúnLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| TlaxcalaLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 4–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| DoradosLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Alebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Mineros de ZacatecasLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 4–2 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Correcaminos UatLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 3–2 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Venados FCLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| CDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–0 | Baada ya kugoogle |
Scores shown from Tapatío’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
MICHEZO 10 ILIYOPITA
Tepatitlán recent form
0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 3–1 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Mineros de ZacatecasLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Venados FCLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| DoradosLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Cruz Azul HidalgoLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 0–6 | Lost | |
| TlaxcalaLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 3–2 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Alebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| CA La PazLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 0–5 | Lost | |
| Correcaminos UatLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 1–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Tepatitlán’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Liga de Expansión MX — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Tapatío are ranked 11 in Primera A: Apertura, with 14 points from 11 games.
Tepatitlán are ranked 16 in Primera A: Apertura, with 7 points from 11 games.
| Pos | Timu | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros UDG | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | CA La Paz | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 23 |
| 3 | Monarcas | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 22 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Cancún | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Piratas | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Durango | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 18 |
| 9 | Correcaminos Uat | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 | Tapatío | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Dorados | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 13 |
| 14 | CDS Tampico Madero | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 30 | -21 | 7 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.