Non League Premier - Southern South · Regular Season - 12
Malvern TownvsYate Town
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 13 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Non League Premier - Southern South
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Malvern Town vs Yate Town: match review and analysis
Malvern Town vs Yate Town in Non League Premier - Southern South on 13 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Malvern Town recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 28. Yate Town recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, with 12 scored and 19 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Malvern Town | Yate Town |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 7 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 28 | 19 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Malvern Town: (1.39 weighted goals scored + 2.08 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.74 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Yate Town: (1.11 weighted goals scored + 2.66 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.88 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
MICHEZO 10 ILIYOPITA
Malvern Town recent form
1.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basingstoke TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Bath CityNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Mickleover SportsFA Trophy | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Gloucester CityNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 5–2 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Chertsey TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| Redditch UnitedFA Cup | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Redditch UnitedFA Cup | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Chippenham TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Gosport BoroughNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| Wimborne TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 0–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Malvern Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
MICHEZO 10 ILIYOPITA
Yate Town recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BerkhamstedNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Frome TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Wimborne TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| SholingFA Trophy | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Chippenham TownFA Cup | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Chippenham TownFA Cup | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Hanworth VillaNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 3–2 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Devizes TownFA Cup | Home | 3–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Taunton TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Home | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Poole TownNon League Premier - Southern South | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Yate Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Non League Premier - Southern South — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Yate Town are ranked 15 in Regular Season, with 12 points from 10 games.
Malvern Town are ranked 22 in Regular Season, with 5 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Timu | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poole Town | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 24 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 23 |
| 3 | Plymouth Parkway | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Hanworth Villa | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Bath City | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Frome Town | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Chichester City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 | Berkhamsted | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | Wimborne Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 15 |
| 10 | Chertsey Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 15 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Taunton Town | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Evesham United | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Basingstoke Town | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Yate Town | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 12 |
| 16 | Sholing | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 11 |
| 17 | Bracknell Town | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 | Hanwell Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
| 19 | Gloucester City | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Chippenham Town | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 8 |
| 21 | Havant & Wville | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 5 |
| 22 | Malvern Town | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.