Non League Premier - Southern Central · Regular Season - 12
Bury TownvsNeedham Market
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 13 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Non League Premier - Southern Central
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
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Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Bury Town vs Needham Market: match review and analysis
Bury Town vs Needham Market in Non League Premier - Southern Central on 13 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Bury Town recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 18 and conceding 19. Needham Market recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses, with 22 scored and 16 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Bury Town | Needham Market |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 4 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 18 | 22 |
| Goals conceded | 19 | 16 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Bury Town: (1.54 weighted goals scored + 1.79 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.67 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Needham Market: (2.16 weighted goals scored + 1.73 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.95 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
MICHEZO 10 ILIYOPITA
Bury Town recent form
1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AlvechurchNon League Premier - Southern Central | Away | 1–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Spalding UnitedFA Cup | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Spalding UnitedFA Cup | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Bishop's StortfordNon League Premier - Southern Central | Away | 2–1 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| St Albans CityFA Trophy | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Hitchin TownNon League Premier - Southern Central | Home | 1–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| GorlestonFA Cup | Away | 4–3 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Bromsgrove SportingNon League Premier - Southern Central | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| London LionsFA Cup | Away | 4–2 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| LeistonNon League Premier - Southern Central | Home | 4–3 | Baada ya kugoogle |
Scores shown from Bury Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
MICHEZO 10 ILIYOPITA
Needham Market recent form
2.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anstey NomadsNon League Premier - Southern Central | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Rushall OlympicNon League Premier - Southern Central | Away | 3–5 | Lost | |
| StamfordNon League Premier - Southern Central | Home | 4–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Canvey IslandFA Trophy | Away | 3–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| BraintreeFA Cup | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| BraintreeFA Cup | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Worcester CityNon League Premier - Southern Central | Home | 2–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Stanway RoversFA Cup | Home | 3–1 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Stanway RoversFA Cup | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Peterborough SportsNon League Premier - Southern Central | Home | 3–3 | Draw |
Scores shown from Needham Market’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Non League Premier - Southern Central — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Bury Town are ranked 2 in Regular Season, with 27 points from 10 games.
Needham Market are ranked 9 in Regular Season, with 14 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Timu | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 28 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | Rushall Olympic | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 21 |
| 5 | Alvechurch | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Kettering Town | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 19 |
| 7 | Peterborough Sports | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 19 |
| 8 | Anstey Nomads | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 16 |
| 9 | Needham Market | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Redditch United | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Halesowen Town | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Stourbridge | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Leiston | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Racing Club Warwick | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Bishop's Stortford | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 | Leamington | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 9 |
| 17 | Banbury United | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 9 |
| 18 | Stratford Town | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 9 |
| 19 | Worcester City | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
| 20 | Hitchin Town | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 7 |
| 21 | Leighton Town | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 5 |
| 22 | Stamford | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 28 | -25 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.