Championship · Regular Season - 10
MillwallvsSwansea
Mkeka wa Leo · Match preview
Match prediction · 13 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Championship
- Venue
- The Den
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
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Mkeka wa Leo match analysis
Millwall vs Swansea: match review and analysis
Millwall vs Swansea in Championship on 13 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Mkeka wa Leo brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Millwall recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 15 and conceding 16. Swansea recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 15 scored and 8 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Millwall | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 15 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 16 | 8 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Millwall: (1.52 weighted goals scored + 0.96 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.24 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Swansea: (1.68 weighted goals scored + 1.53 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.60 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
MICHEZO 10 ILIYOPITA
Millwall recent form
1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PrestonChampionship | Away | 1–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| West HamChampionship | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| MiddlesbroughChampionship | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| BlackburnChampionship | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| NewcastleLeague Cup | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| BoltonChampionship | Home | 4–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| WrexhamChampionship | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| SouthamptonChampionship | Away | 1–5 | Lost | |
| Cambridge UnitedLeague Cup | Away | 1–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| NorwichChampionship | Home | 3–0 | Baada ya kugoogle |
Scores shown from Millwall’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
MICHEZO 10 ILIYOPITA
Swansea recent form
1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NorwichChampionship | Home | 2–1 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| LincolnChampionship | Away | 2–1 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| BurnleyChampionship | Home | 3–1 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| SouthamptonChampionship | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| WrexhamChampionship | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| WatfordChampionship | Home | 2–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| DerbyChampionship | Away | 3–0 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| Sheffield UtdChampionship | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Stoke CityChampionship | Away | 2–1 | Baada ya kugoogle | |
| BirminghamLeague Cup | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Swansea’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Championship — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Swansea are ranked 1 in Championship, with 20 points from 9 games.
Millwall are ranked 8 in Championship, with 14 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Timu | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.