Match analysis
VfB Stuttgart vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Thu, 1 Oct 2026 · 18:30 EAT
Double chance: home win or draw
Saved estimated probability: 90%. The publishing threshold is 80%.
Analysis saved: 1 Oct 2026, 18:29 EAT
How the prediction is calculated
API-Football supplied the home, draw and away estimates. Rounded inputs are normalized to total 100%. A double chance adds two mutually exclusive outcomes; it does not multiply them.
The provider’s internal forecasting model is not exposed by these probabilities. They do not establish an independently verified success rate.
Match probabilities
Home win45%
Draw45%
Away win10%
The mathematics for each option
| Prediction | Calculation | Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | P(home) | 45% |
| Away win | P(away) | 10% |
| Double chance: home win or draw | 45% + 45% | 90% |
| Double chance: away win or draw | 10% + 45% | 55% |
| Double chance: home or away win | 45% + 10% | 55% |
Selection rule: a home or away win at 80% or more is considered first. When goal estimates exist, over 2.5 then over 1.5 are considered next. Otherwise, the highest double-chance estimate must reach 80%. Displayed pick percentages are rounded down; calculations use full precision.